Cav's Place

After 500 days of the current stage of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, I was saying that I must hope that 1000 days will never be reached, because Russia and Putin’s regime will be defeated long before that point, unequivocally and in a manner that will ensure that they will stop being a threat. Of course, the chances of that happening were clearly low even then, but now, when the support received by Ukraine has dropped so drastically that Russia just secured a major victory, the war reaching 1000 days seems to be the best possible outcome, the alternative being a negotiated settlement that would offer Russia all of the territories it wants as well as the time to prepare for the next attack. And Putin having so successfully switched Russia to a war economy while retaining a fair amount of prosperity, and now acting with such impunity both in Russia and abroad, proves that he fancies his chances. And why wouldn’t he? And, as infuriating and disheartening as it is, why wouldn’t most Europeans agree?
I’ll keep saying that what’s generally called the West, most definitely NATO, and at least to some extent also the EU, could and absolutely should have stopped this from ever happening. Stopping it once it did start was much more difficult, costly and risky, but there might have still been some methods. And there definitely were, and still are, methods to effectively help Ukraine obtain that unequivocal victory that’s so necessary. However, even though every day that passes reduces the chances and increases the costs and risks even more, instead of getting serious about it at least now, pretty much all signs point to the contrary. Not that it’s a surprise, of course, since that’s how it has always been, and exactly why Putin does what he does, and why other powers, starting with China but not limited to them, are testing the waters and pressing more and more.
I wonder if there is a point when things will get bad enough to cause that seismic shift that’s so necessary, but I’m doubting it even more than I did before, the far more likely outcome being that the shift, when it will come, will be straight from apathy and the misguided optimism that leads to the illusion that things couldn’t really be that bad or at least that everything will eventually work out, somehow, to utter hopelessness and panic, completely missing that all important point in between where something that’d make a real difference would actually be done. After all, that’s how it usually is, whether we’re talking about regular people or those in positions of authority, and whether we’re talking about this or any other major problem or little everyday matters.