Cav's Place

Back in February, at the two-year mark, I was saying that the current stage of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reaching 1000 days seemed to be the best possible outcome, the alternative being a negotiated settlement that would offer Russia all of the territories it wants as well as the time to prepare for the next attack. And at least 1000 days were reached without that happening. But, considering the recent developments and despite the brave face that Zelenskyy somehow still manages to put up, I’m reminded of an old joke from here that went like this:

A messenger rushes to Michael the Brave (or Stephen the Great, take your pick): “Your Highness, the Turks are coming!”
“How many?”
“200000!”
“And how many men do we have?”
“100000!”
“Bring me the blue cape! We ride to war!”
Soon after the battle is won, once again a messenger rushes in: “Your Highness, the Turks are coming again!”
“How many?”
“300000!”
“And how many men do we have?”
“What we were left with after the last battle, 80000!”
“Bring me the red cape! We ride to war!”
“Excuse me, Your Highness, but why the red cape?”
“So my men will not see when I’ll get wounded.”
Soon after that battle is won as well, yet again a messenger rushes in: “Your Highness, the Turks are coming yet again!”
“How many?”
“500000!”
“And how many men do we have?”
“What we were left with after the last battle, 50000!”
“Bring me the red cape… And the brown pants…”

With things looking as bad as they do for Ukrainians, with winter coming, which is terrible in itself, considering Russia’s attacks on the energy infrastructure, with more and more voices pushing for a settlement that would see Russia keep all of the territory it currently holds and Ukraine kept away from NATO membership for the foreseeable future in exchange for some other kind of security guarantees that would apparently include a heavily fortified border and boots from an European “coalition of the willing” on the ground to help hold it, with Putin feeling so optimistic that he rejected even those proposals as unacceptable, and, probably worst of all, with Trump back in the White House two months from now, I fear it may be time for the brown pants… And not just for Zelenskyy or Ukrainians in general, but for all of us, especially in this part of Europe, though not only.
I’m just going to repeat that NATO, the EU and whoever else counts as “the West” could and should have prevented this from ever happening by acting firmly against Russia first, preferably at least since the opportunity provided by Georgia in 2008, and since they failed to do that then at the very least they should have stepped in to defend Ukraine directly once this invasion began, and are responsible for the consequences of not doing so. But things are as they are and we can’t change the past, so the question now is how to make sure that Ukraine will regain the lost territory and rebuild and how Russia will pay for it all and be thoroughly defeated and prevented from ever becoming a threat again… And more words of support don’t count when it comes to that, and even Biden lifting some range restrictions, though apparently only to allow the use of US weapons in the Kursk region that Ukraine has occupied, and a similar decision which may be taken by the UK, are far too little, far too late, plus that others, like Germany, remain too afraid to do even that much even now.
Make no mistake, Putin’s regime will keep pushing forward as long as it’ll be allowed to, and Ukraine really is fighting for all of us. If Russia won’t be thoroughly defeated there, it will use the time offered by any negotiated settlements to regain its strength and prepare, and then it’ll move on to the next target. And any deal that won’t ensure that Ukraine will regain all of the territory lost since the start of this invasion and join NATO in the foreseeable future and that Russia will cover the costs of the reconstruction of Ukraine after the war and also pay, in international courts, for the war crimes committed during it is a victory for Putin’s regime and a defeat not just for Ukraine, but for “the West” as a whole, with consequences that will be felt in other parts of the world as well. And anything that might be in any way seen as a victory for Ukraine and a defeat for Putin’s regime would also require regaining all of Donetsk and Luhansk and most preferably also Crimea, at least as an autonomous region and removing Russian forces from the territory and the surrounding waters, measures that would severely cripple Russia’s military capabilities for the foreseeable future and ending any and all energy and fossil fuel imports from Russia. Not that even that would be any sort of guarantee, as long as Putin’s regime, which is obviously not limited solely to his person, isn’t removed from power, but it might just be enough to give the rest of us time to prepare for the next stage and put them on the defensive. Once again, anything short of that guarantees that the situation will continue to be the other way around and things will only get worse.