Cav's Place

We are now on day 51 of a war that Ukraine was at first widely expected to lose within a week or so and they didn’t merely manage to prevent Russia from capturing Kyiv and installing its own puppet government, but actually forced Russian troops to withdraw from that entire region, instead concentrating on the east and south, and even seem to have scored a truly notable victory, having likely sunk the Russian flagship. Admittedly, this comes over a month after they scuttled their own, to prevent it from being captured, and Russia maintains a nearly unchallenged naval domination and blockade despite the loss. And, overall, Russia has more than enough forces to renew its northern offensive if the opportunity will present itself, which keeps Ukraine from redeploying its own forces to aid in the defense of the areas that are currently facing even harsher attacks, and the general recently appointed to lead the war effort is likely to fix many of the blunders which have so far prevented Russians from making proper use of what, at least on paper, was their immense advantage from pretty much every point of view.
Russia’s chances of obtaining something that the regime can present as a victory now seem to focus on Mariupol, a city that they have obliterated but so far failed to completely conquer. The military situation looked grim a few days ago, and ever more so as time passed, but now even there there may be some faint signs of hope. Without a relief effort breaking through the siege, it remains a matter of time, and such a relief seems unlikely at the moment, but every day gained provides an opportunity, not so much for Ukraine as for the “civilized world” to finally grow some balls and truly step in.

The fact of the matter is that, regardless of the skill and heroism of the Ukrainian defenders, and of a president who so unexpectedly rose to the occasion in a manner that few, if any, current world leaders seem likely to have been able to match, Russia has the power, and the regime certainly has the determination, to prolong the war as long as necessary to achieve their goals, betting on the fact that the Western support for Ukraine will wane in time, which is unfortunately likely to happen… Not that said support is, or was at any point, anywhere near the necessary level anyway, the West and its allies always being both too cowardly and too selfish, or more exactly too shortsighted, to act in the manner that the current events would truly call for.
Accepting Ukraine, along with Georgia and Moldova, into NATO should have been a given for many years now. Since that didn’t happen, the next best thing would have been to deploy troops inside Ukraine, in defensive positions, before the start of the invasion, under the same guise of “exercises” used by Russia in order to mass its forces at the border. And when that also didn’t happen and the invasion did begin, Ukraine should have received direct military aid, in the form of pretty much any kind of equipment they required, from all sorts of weapons and ammunition to ships and tanks and aircraft, while at the same time any and all who desired to go there and join the fight should have been at least allowed, and preferably encouraged, to do so. Also, if closing the skies above Ukraine keeps being rejected because it’d require NATO aircraft shooting down Russian ones, at the very least the seas should be closed, with a blockade at the edge of the parts of the Azov and Black Seas that are internationally recognized Russian waters. As for non-military matters, all Russian diplomats and staff should have been expelled as soon as the invasion began and, more importantly, it should have again been a given to completely ban any and all trade with Russia, starting with fossil fuels, that very same instant, and this should have been used to spur a greatly hastened complete switch to renewable energy, as well as improved energy efficiency and savings.
Did any of that happen? Of course not. Are the last few points listed above being implemented in full even now? Again, of course not. Are they likely to be, at least in a foreseeable future? Yet again, the answer is no, for the reasons already stated. Instead, on top of the cowardice that leads to military inaction, which Zelenskyy is rightfully fed up with it, the EU pays about as much per day for Russian fossil fuels as the total amount pledged to Ukraine as military aid, and even the thought of reducing reliance on Russian fossil fuels may well slow rather than hasten the necessary overhaul of the energy sector. But, of course, that Babylon 5 quote that I keep returning to remains as true as ever, with little to no difference between those in positions of authority and the masses: “That does seem to be the rule, doesn’t it? Analyze the problem, choose whichever strategy makes least sense and then do it.”