Cav's Place

A year ago, I was saying that things were looking grim, for Ukraine and not only. And this winter in particular was definitely grim over there, with Russia destroying the energy infrastructure and using the weather to try to freeze Ukraine into submission. But, just like their previous attempts, this one also failed, and winter is almost over. Admittedly, Russians continue to make gains, but recently it seems that Ukraine has obtained some small victories as well, and the very fact that Russia continues to demand the territory that they’re yet to obtain through war in those so-called negotiations that are nothing but a show set up for Trump proves that they’re frustrated with the failure and know that military action won’t bring actual success anytime soon. That doesn’t mean that they won’t win that territory if things continue as they are, but the only way they can conquer something is to turn it into a ruined wasteland first, slowly and with losses and expenses that they won’t be able to sustain forever, meaning that they only gain the results of their destruction, not anything actually valuable, while Ukraine has the time to build new lines of defenses behind the destroyed ones, continuing to be able to hope to hold on until Russia will no longer be able to continue attacking.
Of course, Russia is working through its European allies as well, the most notable being the Hungarian regime, though it’s far from the only one that continues to collaborate with Russia and block the still feeble attempts to truly support Ukraine, not to mention strike back. And now you also have lesser but nevertheless relevant things like Russia and Belarus being allowed to compete under their own flags in the Paralympics that show that the situation is increasingly normalized in the minds of many, Russia once again edging closer to being allowed to get away with it, as it has done each time before.
What’s going to happen in the end is anyone’s guess, but despite the fact that the situation in the US is pretty much as bad as could be expected, Trump slamming a wrecking ball into everything he can, I’d actually dare to say that things don’t look quite as grim as they did a year ago. Europe seems to finally start waking up when it comes to defense, albeit very slowly and unwillingly, and the very fact that they made it through this terrible winter may give Ukraine renewed hope in the coming months, regardless of the scars they carry. But, of course, the only way to end this war, and to ensure that another won’t start as soon as Russia will recover its strength, is for them to need to recognize defeat, and while the US could swiftly ensure that, they won’t, so I’m still waiting for the moment when European support and action will be expressed as “whatever it takes” instead of “for however long it takes”. If that day will come in the near future, there is still hope for all of us, when it comes to this and many other issues. If not, so much will have been lost and sacrificed for nothing…