Cav's Place

After long and, at best, utterly pointless discussions, the United Nations’ Security Council finally voted to approve establishing a no-fly zone in Libya and also to take “all necessary measures short of an occupation force” to protect civilians and civilian-populated areas from Gaddafi’s attacks. France, the United Kingdom, the United States, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Colombia, Gabon, Lebanon, Nigeria, Portugal and South Africa voted in favor and there were no votes against the resolution, but China, Russia, Brazil, Germany and India abstained.
Of course, I’m not at all surprised by China not agreeing with this, in fact perhaps being a little surprised that they only abstained, while Russia’s position was exactly the one everyone expected them to have, but the other three countries that abstained leave a very bitter taste in my mouth. Brazil actually was a slight surprise, because I hadn’t seen anything these days stating that they were against such a resolution, though it may just be that I missed those reports. India and, even more so, Germany were known to oppose any sort of military action, though it’s no less unpleasant that nobody managed to change their stance.

I’m actually pleased by the rather permissive wording of the resolution, which allows for all sorts of attacks against Gaddafi’s forces if they so much as approach a city, seeing as that’d certainly count as a “civilian-populated area”, and probably even allows for assassination attempts, as a small team of assassins certainly couldn’t be considered “an occupation force” and therefore could potentially be deployed. Now it all depends on what exactly will each country do and when, because the rebels may well have only hours left otherwise. After all, Gaddafi’s son stated Wednesday that “it will all be over within 48 hours” and some hours ago Gaddafi himself said that the full assault on Benghazi will begin tonight and there will be no mercy shown to anyone who is armed or has fought against his troops.
A lot of things should be happening before dawn, though I’m currently seeing that US and NATO “sources” are disputing claims that warplanes will be in Libyan skies tonight. Still, the US did hint towards airstrikes aimed at tank columns and military vessels heading towards Benghazi and was reportedly already moving its own vessels in the area, France stated that aircraft will be ready to launch “within hours” of the resolution being passed and Canada already pledged six fighter jets to the efforts. Also, since the United Kingdom and Lebanon, alongside France, co-sponsored the resolution, one would assume that those countries would be swift to act as well. Especially the United Kingdom, as the British authorities still have a lot to atone for regarding their slow response when it came to evacuating British citizens caught in Libya at the start of the crisis.

But now I’ll have a slightly different question: If it’s wrong to start a war without the UN’s approval, wouldn’t it be equally wrong to openly refuse to take part in one that actually is started by the UN? I’m talking about Germany’s stance of course, saying that they will not take part in any sort of military action regardless of the UN’s resolution and instead advocating “measures” that’d be laughable if there wouldn’t be so many lives and likely even a part of the world’s future at stake, such as “targeted sanctions, political pressure and international isolation”. I mean, those are the things that the world has tried so far, since the start of the Libyan conflict, and the current situation should be proof enough that they’re not only not going to work, but in fact attempting such things only buys Gaddafi and his forces time to get back in control, making removing him even less likely in the future!
Thing is that I somehow doubt that anyone wants him back in control now. Well, all right, other dictatorships, including China, most likely wouldn’t mind, but otherwise… I’m not sure if Russia cares one way or the other right at this moment, while other countries that are too far from the conflict to possibly be directly affected immediately and that have rulers blind enough to fail to see the implications may think that it’s not their problem, but think that even they are somewhat bothered by the prospect, just not enough to actually want to get involved right now. But there is a very real danger that Gaddafi himself, who was, with great difficulty, ostensibly turned away from terrorism and converted into an ally against al-Qaeda, will get back to his old ways if allowed to win this war, especially considering all the recent violent outbursts aimed at the United States, France and various other countries that openly opposed his attacks.
There was this pretty blunt statement from his defense ministry earlier: “Any foreign military act against Libya will expose all air and maritime traffic in the Mediterranean Sea to danger, and civilian and military [facilities] will become targets of Libya’s counterattack. The Mediterranean basin will face danger not just in the short-term, but also in the long-term.” I believe that a significant number of countries will not take kindly to that, but also that they will not take kindly to any other countries that will refuse to help them defend themselves from this threat, especially when said countries are generally considered to be allies…

Still, let’s wait and see how this will play out. Considering the number of casualties and the destruction caused by this conflict so far, it’s undeniable that the UN’s resolution came too late for far too many. But, mainly thanks to the sacrifice of the rebels who desperately, and improbably, managed to hold on to at least a part of Ajdabiya in face of Gaddafi’s continued onslaught in order to ensure that the vote will come before the start of the full and final assault on Benghazi, it may still be just in time to win this war… Assuming it’s not too little as well… And Libyans do seem to think it’s not too little, as current reports state that celebrations and demonstrations have started in various Libyan cities, including the capital Tripoli. Of course, such reports can’t be verified, but we’ll see what kind of information will trickle in over the next few hours.