In 1957 we were capable of putting the first artificial satellite in Earth orbit. In 1959 we managed the first lunar flyby and the first lunar landing, though it was not a soft landing. Then came 1961 and the first manned spaceflight. 1965 brought the first EVA. In 1966 we achieved the first soft landing on any body other than Earth and managed to put the first artificial satellite in orbit around any body other than Earth, the obvious target of both being the Moon. Then came 1968 and the first manned spaceflight to leave low Earth orbit, reach another body and achieve orbit around it, the target obviously also being the Moon.
Then, on July 20, 1969, at 8:17 PM GMT, the first humans landed on the Moon (yes, really). Now, 42 years, 13 hours and 40 minutes later, on July 21, 2011, at 9:57 AM GMT, the Space Shuttle program ended with a successful landing, leaving a huge void in its wake. And I’m not really sure what else is there to say, because nobody’ll make you understand what this all means and why’s it so wrong if you don’t already, though I stumbled upon one article that certainly gave it a good try…
Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying that the Space Shuttle shouldn’t have been retired. It’s been slightly over 30 years since the first launch, after all, so the design itself was badly outdated, especially for such terribly demanding applications. But the problem is that it’s not being replaced with anything, or certainly with nothing worth mentioning. The problem is that, for three decades, mankind had this vehicle capable of repeatedly carrying humans and large amounts of equipment and supplies into space and then returning them safely to the ground in a completely controlled manner and now we no longer have anything like it.
Yes, all the milestones I pointed out in the first part of this post were achieved before the age of the Space Shuttle, but that hardly means such a vehicle isn’t necessary for proper space exploration or that we’re not going backwards. You can start doing new things without reusable tools, in fact that’s often the case, but it’s very difficult, not to mention terribly wasteful, to keep doing them for long like this. A vehicle like the Space Shuttle may not be required to do something the first time, but it’s definitely required in order to turn the milestones and achievements into the sustainable routine required for proper exploration and development.
How far do you think we’ll get now that we’re back to splashing down somewhere and struggling to retrieve the crew after each manned mission? Or how far do you think we’ll get now that we’re back to separating the crew and the equipment to be used or deployed, assuming a mission requires both, into different modules? Basically, what chances do we have to go forward now that we went back three decades?
Not that any future plans could change the fact that we currently no longer have any such vehicle in any way, but whenever you hear about plans for any vehicle similar to the Shuttle you should also keep in mind that all such programs have so far been canceled, no other similar vehicles ever operating. That should put any current promises into the proper perspective as well, particularly when the current political, social and economic climate is perhaps more hostile than ever to research in general and space exploration in particular, don’t you think?
But what’s worse than canceled programs is this utterly idiotic idea of relying on the private sector for the future of space research and exploration. You only need to look at the medical sector to see what putting research into the hands of the private sector does! A private company, by definition, is only looking for profit and for what material benefits it can obtain as a result of any action, so it certainly can’t be trusted with taking the burden of such missions in any way, shape or form, because the purpose of space exploration, and perhaps the primary purpose of research in general, should be simply to gather knowledge.
As the author of that article I linked to in the first part of this post put it, “once you lose the desire to visit space simply because it is interesting and start going there because maybe, this time, we will come up with another useful silly putty, you lose the point”. Unfortunately, we have lost the point long ago, but there could perhaps be some slight chance of finding it again if we’d ensure the really dedicated scientists’ independence and offer them what they need to do what they do best. If, on the other hand, we add the private sector’s pressure on top of the political pressure that has always existed in this field, we’ll do nothing but take away any remaining chance of that ever happening.
Leave the private sector to deploy and maintain commercial satellites and perhaps, under very strict regulations and only if significant taxes will be applied and then used to fund space research and exploration efforts, also handle space tourism, but that’s where it ends. Or, all right, private companies could perhaps also be contracted to gather space junk, which is certainly something that needs to be done as soon as possible, and perhaps at the very most handle some minor maintenance work, but only if they agree to very quickly fix any damage caused and also pay enormous penalties in case they make the slightest mistake. The rest, as in the actual research and exploration, absolutely must be left to those who aren’t interested in what can be done or gathered, but only in what can be found, what can be learned.
The Space Shuttle was most likely mankind’s greatest technological achievement when the program started and there are likely few that could dare challenge it for that “title” even now. Sadly, after more than 30 years we’re not only unable to improve upon that design, but we’re not even capable to putting something even remotely similar in its place! What’s going on now dishonors us all, as do the current plans for the future. As a human, I’m shamed to no end.
I seem to be writing a fair bit about space exploration lately, but there is good reason for that, as plenty of notable things are happening in that field. Some of them are worrying or even downright terrible, but more about that in the next post on the topic, assuming I’ll manage to stick to the plan and actually write it next week. Today we had confirmation of another positive development, so that’s what the focus of this post needs to be.
I’m obviously talking about Dawn successfully entering orbit around Vesta. This was scheduled for around 5:00 AM GMT on July 16, but the spacecraft design and positioning did not allow for communications at that time, so data confirming the success of the orbital insertion maneuver was only received early this morning GMT, when Dawn was scheduled to orient itself in such a manner as to allow sending back data. The exact time of orbital insertion is not yet known, as it depends on Vesta’s gravity, which is currently only estimated, exact measurements needing to be performed by Dawn in the coming days.
We’re talking about a mission that was canceled, reinstated, put on hold, canceled a second time and then also reinstated a second time before finally being ready for launch. Then the launch itself was delayed several times, for a total of more than three months from the original schedule, during which time a small accident also caused slight damage to one of the spacecraft’s solar panels. Despite it all, there it is now, close to four years after launch, finally in orbit around its first target and ready to send back the data it was built to gather.
The mission timeline calls for a year spent orbiting Vesta, followed by a departure towards Ceres, which it should start orbiting in early 2015. It is currently the first spacecraft to closely study Vesta and, assuming everything will work according to plan, it will also become the first spacecraft to study Ceres. As a result, it will also be the first to actually orbit two different bodies and the first to closely study a dwarf planet, being scheduled to reach Ceres five months before New Horizons will reach Pluto.
With observations only starting, there is little else to say about this particular mission at the moment. I can only hope that such successes will somehow make the powers that be reverse the current trend and pay more attention to space exploration in the future. If, despite a political, social and economic climate that’s not only not favorable, but often downright hostile, to such projects, we can now have MESSENGER orbiting Mercury, Venus Express orbiting Venus, LRO orbiting the Moon, Mars Odyssey, Mars Express and MRO orbiting Mars, Dawn orbiting Vesta and Cassini orbiting Saturn, not to mention the outstanding Opportunity still wandering around on the surface of Mars, imagine where we could be with adequate support. But this is a rant better suited for the next post on the topic of space exploration, so I’ll leave the rest of it for later.
July 12th again… Oddly enough, I didn’t spend it curled in a ball and in darkness, but that doesn’t mean I don’t feel like it. I may do that after writing this, actually, though they keep saying there may be storms this evening, so I’m waiting for that. Right now it doesn’t seem likely though, or at least I see no sign of a potential storm approaching.
Went out today and bought some things, which makes it the third month in a row when I do that. Got some fruits and vegetables as well, but I’m quite unhappy with what I got. No other options there though and, no matter how much I’d want to, I couldn’t try to buy them from a farmers’ market because that’d require actually talking to people, likely several of them. Was still shaking like crazy when I ended up in front of the cashier anyway, but at least I didn’t slam into the wrong door and keep trying to push and pull in confusion afterwards, like I did last month…
I went with the forecast, which said it’ll be cloudy in the afternoon and then possibly stormy in the evening, so I took my jacket with me as well, to have something to throw on in case the storm will start by the time I’ll get back. Of course, not only that there is still no storm even now, but it wasn’t cloudy at all either. Luckily I deal well with heat and today was manageable anyway, with a reported high of around 32°C, so it wasn’t a problem… But I’m still waiting for that storm!
Was looking at last year’s post and seeing that I talked to Ami that day. In fact those were the last times I could chat with her, on July 12 and 14. Those days were probably the highlights of my summer because of that, with her being on the messenger so rarely, but that was the last time I caught her on and around the end of the year it all went down the drain. So that’s one more person who stopped talking to me, though of course that outcome was quite inevitable, considering that particular difference of opinion on an issue that’s so crucial for her.
Otherwise, Sandra just recently told me to fuck off… Actually, she said she’ll probably get distracted again, as she usually does while I’m trying to talk to her, so it’ll be a waste of time for both of us, which prompted me to ask if that’s a polite way to tell me to fuck off and she said that’s pretty much it. What bothered her was that I told her I was trying to talk to her because nobody else was on. The usual punishment for honesty, I guess. I mean, why would I try to talk to her otherwise, not counting when I’d somehow happen to have something to tell her, specifically? As she pointed out right after saying that, we’ve known each other for several years and almost never had a real conversation… Almost always because she’ll just stop replying after only a few lines, later saying, if she says anything else at all, that she “got distracted” by this or that.
At least today is Neptune’s birthday, at least from humanity’s point of view, since it’s exactly one Neptune year since the planet was discovered.
One of the things that caught my eye last week was a news piece about the latest attempt made by health officials from the Indian state of Rajasthan to curb population growth: They are now offering prizes for people who volunteer for sterilization. We’re talking about food blenders, televisions, motorcycles and even cars, though admittedly the cars in question are apparently only Tata Nanos. What’s more, all Indians who volunteer for sterilization will be eligible for the prizes, not just the residents of Rajasthan.
While obviously not the safest, surgical sterilization is by far the surest and cheapest birth control method, permanently solving the problem with a single procedure and eliminating the risk of improper use that most other methods have. It is most likely the only suitable method for those who, for one reason or another, are unable to correctly use others, while also being a part of the suitable punishment for those who are unwilling to completely avoid pregnancies otherwise, though in such cases the procedure should be performed in such a way as to have very unpleasant consequences.
When it comes to people who have access to other safe and effective birth control methods and have proven to be able to use them properly, it’s not exactly one of the things I specifically encourage. That is because it involves surgery, may even have some associated long-term risks and doesn’t have any other potential associated personal benefits in itself. Still, it’s certainly an option at all times and of great benefit to the cause and the world, so anyone who volunteers for this should be commended and, if they do it before having any children, perhaps even rewarded in some way. In addition, certain other procedures that would also count as surgical sterilization but also have immediate personal benefits, such as removing a woman’s uterus to permanently eliminate menstruation, could be performed, adding to the reasons why something like this could be a good choice.
Since my general view tends to be that people should be expected to not cause significant damage to the environment, the first requirement of that being not to breed, and punished if they do, not rewarded when they don’t, what I just wrote may seem somewhat weird. After all, when Ami was telling me that both the carrot and the stick are needed in order for such things to work, I replied that my approach when it comes to such important issues, and the overpopulation one in particular, is more like a fucking cat o’ nine tails than a mere stick, yet here I am supporting and even suggesting some sort of rewards for people who do something that would ensure that they won’t breed. But there is good reason for this, mainly having to do with the fact that, in case something does somehow go wrong, you can’t switch to some other method and wait for the negative side effects to go away, because this isn’t temporary.
While this may bother even more than the concept itself bothers, I’m also going to say that any rewards could perhaps be greater for the men who volunteer than for the women. After all, if she were to use another birth control method and it would fail, a woman would face an abortion, so any potential risks associated with surgical sterilization could be weighed against that. On the other hand, a man doesn’t face that risk, so there is one very important factor less in favor of such a decision, which makes an even stronger case for rewarding those who choose to have it done anyway. Not to mention that having many children is unfortunately still seen as a sign of strength by most men, which makes that annoying cultural aspect of the issue even more of a problem and therefore an even greater incentive may be required in order to make any significant progress.
So what am I saying? On top of what I kept saying all along, namely that the people who are either unable or unwilling to properly use other birth control methods to avoid pregnancies need to be sterilized, very carefully in case of those who are unable and very brutally in case of those who are unwilling, I’m now adding that people who volunteer for surgical sterilization before having any children should perhaps be rewarded in some way. Granted that such rewards imply the use of resources, but even very significant rewards, much greater than those listed in the piece of news I started this from, would require far less than a child would end up consuming, so any such action would clearly benefit Earth.
I’m not exactly keen on rewarding those who volunteer for sterilization after already having children because the damage is already done. However, I must admit that it would certainly prevent even more damage, so I could go on the above rationale and say that we must start somewhere, so even those who already have one or two children could be rewarded in some way for volunteering, though obviously less than those who don’t have any. But that’s really where it ends, because those who already have more than two children absolutely must be sterilized under the current circumstances, so the only reward for those who come willingly should be the fact that they won’t be punished like those who’d try to avoid this would be. I’ll say that’s too much of a carrot as it is…
In the end, what we need to do is make sure that the vast majority of people won’t breed and that those who freely choose to be childfree would be recognized and rewarded in some way, in time. The methods used to remain childfree are less important from this point of view, but some are more effective, some require less resources, some are easier to make available and some may make people more wary. Due to the fact that it only needs to be done once and the effects are permanent, surgical sterilization is extremely effective, requires few resources and is easy to make available, but it also makes people quite wary because, after all, it does require surgery, which automatically implies certain risks. As a result, it should be rewarded far more than any other single choice a person could make, so there are very few potential rewards I’d find anything to complain about and plenty that I could even encourage.
After years of rumors and negotiations, the future of Formula One seems to have finally been decided. Something big will happen, but it’ll start in 2014 instead of the proposed 2013, the engines will be V6 instead of the proposed I4 and they’ll be limited to 15000 rpm instead of the proposed 12000. They’ll also initially be meant to use 35% less fuel than the current engines, which is at the lowest end of the original plan, which aimed to reduce fuel consumption by anything between 35% and 50%. So the FIA caved in to pretty much every demand, but they still seem pleased with the outcome, which preserved the goals of reducing fuel consumption and improving energy recovery systems, while also finally ending the current freeze and once again allowing engine development to take place.
I’m not quite sure exactly how I feel about all of this, but reducing fuel consumption, improving the “green” systems and finally allowing engine development to resume are undeniably good things. The question is what will actually happen, how successful will this be, but also what the new limits be will be, because they obviously won’t allow teams and engine manufacturers to develop as much as they possibly could, instead setting some new limits and most likely freezing development yet again at some later point, once they’ll believe that those limits have been reached.
Practically banning engine development in what is supposed to be the pinnacle of motorsports always seemed completely absurd to me, especially when the engine is the main component that could also be relevant for road cars, so allowing it again could be enough for me to be pleased by the announcement regardless of any other issues. However, the terms make all the difference and we’ll need to see exactly what these new specifications are likely to mean, for the first season or two as well as in the long run, especially since previous such changes tended to have rather unpleasant results, mostly just lowering performance for a while for no real reason.
At least this time there is a reason I can really approve of, namely the “greening” of Formula One, but the question is how much of it will be real and how much will be just greenwashing. After all, they openly state that the image of Formula One has suffered recently due to being seen as a very polluting sport that promotes the use of fossil fuels, so these changes are obviously aimed at improving said image as much as possible, any potential environmental benefits, particularly those that could potentially arise out of the implementation of these new technologies in road cars, being only side effects. But at least they’d be positive side effects for a change…
Not counting this season, when they seem to have managed to come up with some changes that truly made the races much more interesting to watch, I quite thoroughly hated the outcome of any such announcements in the past. As I already said, the result was nothing but a temporary reduction in performance for no practical reason that could make any sense to me, seeing as Formula One cars should be the best racing vehicles on Earth and the aim should be to constantly improve their performance. Actually, I should also add that these performance improvements would preferably not be primarily thanks to aerodynamics, because working on the aerodynamics of a Formula One car essentially means struggling to get the highest cornering speeds out of a design that other people are coming up with specifically to reduce cornering speeds, as someone once said.
Before the engine development freeze, such changes were incremental, constantly getting the performance back down just as the teams were managing to recover what they had lost as a result of the last change. The reasons given were that it was an attempt to make the sport more interesting to watch while at the same time reducing costs. However, the sport didn’t exactly get any more interesting to watch as a result of such changes before this year, sometimes quite the contrary, and the costs argument is one I’m firmly against. As I said, I believe that Formula One should truly offer the best possible performance, so if a team or an engine manufacturer is capable and willing to pour endless amounts of money into a project that will gain them a tenth of a second per lap, they should be allowed and perhaps even encouraged to do so. If other teams and manufacturers can’t keep up, they can always move on to other championships, as there are certainly plenty of them to choose from.
I’ve been known in the past to advocate a Formula One championship with no more than eight or nine teams, and perhaps as little as six, each of which having three cars, just so only the best would compete. There is no reason to have “filler” teams like the three that entered last year, which are still far behind even the weakest of the older teams. A team should only be in Formula One if it can at the very least keep up with those that constantly improve the overall performance, and preferably all teams should improve the overall performance of what is generally understood as a Formula One car in one way or another. But these changes do seem like they may just allow even smaller teams to make improvements, at least as long as they’ll secure the use of a decent engine from one of the few manufacturers still involved in the sport, so it may turn out well from this point of view as well. At the same time, it may not…
As I said, previous changes were frustrating because they were incremental and served no practical purpose. These, while certainly being very watered down, are anything but incremental and serve a purpose I can fully agree with, even if indirectly. If the teams and engine manufacturers will be allowed to keep developing their packages according to these new specifications for a long time to come, without having the FIA freeze development yet again as soon as some advancements will be made, great things may happen in the future. There may even be actual environmental benefits, especially if the new technologies will end up being implemented in road cars. However, at this point it’s all very uncertain, everything depending on the teams’ and manufacturers’ willingness to commit and the FIA’s willingness to give the best of them the freedom they need to show the world what can be done.
