Cav's Place

Due to some unusual behavior noticed Saturday night (or Sunday morning, since it was about 5:30 AM), I decided to pull forward this month’s “computer maintenance” a little. So I ran chkdsk on two partitions on Sunday and was planning to backup and check the other two partitions yesterday, finishing up with a virus scan last night. However, the planned backup involved more than the usual instance of backing up important files on the USB stick bought just for this purpose, as I meant to finally get around to what last October I was thinking to do every two or three months and never did so far, namely putting in the old 160 Gb HDD and copying everything else, such as music and software kits, on it.
That didn’t quite go as planned, as yesterday I took to writing a little and then fooling with some numbers for a project of mine, plus playing Baldur’s Gate some more, as I finally bit the bullet and started it about a week ago, after finishing Anachronox. So I only took a break for the usual backup, putting off the other one for today. However, that break ended up being much longer and more troublesome than expected.

At first it seemed to be going well enough, as in there appeared to be no errors or problems while I copied the files, but that proved to be a wrong impression as soon as I ran chkdsk on the stick, after I finished backing up. Plenty of files were reported as having incorrect sizes and lost fragments, appearing as if some of the data I had just copied overwrote sectors occupied by existing files, obviously causing those files to be lost. And said files unfortunately included an older project of mine, abandoned a long time ago but kept around for reference in case I’ll ever try something similar again, which I had deleted from the HDD, leaving only on the stick…
Since there was little to do about that lost file and it wasn’t particularly important anyway, I shrugged it off and reformatted the stick, which took way longer than expected. Then I ran chkdsk again and had to wait for a long time, as it kept freezing for minutes on end. It didn’t even appear to finish properly, as it listed “an unexpected error” when it was at 99%. However, it didn’t mark any bad sectors, so I was somewhat confused. The signs of failure were obvious, but I couldn’t figure out what kind of failure.
Meant to try copying the files again, to see what’d happen, but discovered that I could no longer access the drive. Not only that, but trying to do so would cause the system to hang. Even clicking to “safely remove” it resulted in the same behavior, so I rebooted… Which required yanking the stick out, because the system seemed determined to get to the bottom of it as well and wouldn’t reboot until I did so.
But then I decided to try something else. Since there are two front USB ports, I simply put the stick into the other one after the restart, to see if the problem wasn’t somehow caused by the port instead of the stick. Interestingly, everything worked just fine after that, as I could access it, copy everything again and then run chkdsk with no problems. So apparently it was the USB port after all? That’s probably even more worrying, though somewhat less surprising, since the front ports are the case’s and that only had one year of warranty, which expired in May of last year…

Either way, those issues did finally provide the kick in the butt needed to actually get around to the other kind of backup today, which also meant I cleaned some dust out of the computer and checked the cables one more time. That’s because I heard something a few times this summer that sounded like a fan was rubbing against a cable, so I kept meaning to check that out and hadn’t until now. Didn’t find any potential cause for that noise, but it does seem quieter now, most likely because the fans no longer need to spin as fast in order to get the same amount of airflow, with the dust gone for the moment.
On the other hand, it also provided the kick in the butt required to get me to write a couple of little scripts to automate the backup process. You see, one of the four partitions was specifically set aside as a “safe”, with cluster size set to only 512 bytes and otherwise unused. The original plan was to keep a current copy of all important files on that partition and then also copy that version to the stick once per month, but I never did that until yesterday, when I gathered everything there before copying it all again on the stick. So today I took that one step further and created a batch file that, using robocopy /MIR, automatically updates that current copy of all important files on the “safe” partition and set it up to run daily through Task Scheduler. And then I made a second one, which updates those files on the stick and then runs chkdsk on it, so the monthly backup will now just require running that file instead of being a tedious task done by hand.

As usual, it takes problems to get one to make the improvements that had been necessary for a long time already. But I do hope there won’t be any more such problems in the near future. Still worried about the stick, however, so I think I’ll format it again next month, to see what happens before copying everything back. And if that doesn’t reveal any more problems then I guess I’ll have to see what’s up with that USB port…
But now you’ll have to excuse me while I get back to Baldur’s Gate, and likely also to my little project later. Then, assuming I won’t forget, I’ll need to run the virus scan tonight and check the system partition at some point as well, as that’s the only one left, because I forgot to schedule the check to run before removing the old HDD again…

Many are concerned about the aging population, by which they mean an increase in the average age of the people who are currently alive. Many of those who share that concern claim that the cause is the lower number of births. I say the problem is that old age is drawn out for far too long. Which brings me to the current topic, which is how people of various age groups should be viewed when it comes to providing healthcare and what are the expected, acceptable and completely unacceptable levels of unhealthiness among them. In the end, it boils down to how long should an average person currently live and how healthy would it be normal for them to be during their lifespan.
For that purpose, I’ll be using several age ranges: Under three years old, three to ten years old, ten to 50, 50 to 65, 65 to 80, 80 to 100 and over 100 years old. Most of these are likely common, with the exception of ten to 50, which is usually split in four or so. I’m taking it as a single range because I say it makes up a person’s meaningful lifespan and nearly everything significant should happen during that age range for most people. I’m also taking it as a single range because I’m trying to say that a person who just turned ten that day and one who is only a day short of turning 50 should be treated the same from the point of view of providing healthcare.

The first order of business is the priority people in each age group should receive when they ask for medical assistance. Since there are seven age ranges, I will simply use seven priority levels, with level one being the highest and level seven being the lowest. The severity of the situation obviously changes things, as a person in critical condition who requires immediate assistance must have priority over anyone who can wait and those whose problems are extremely small or even nonexistent should wait until all those who really require some sort of specialized help are taken care of, but the priority levels are also to be used to determine the order in which people who require immediate assistance are to be taken care of when there are too many of them to handle at once.
Since I firmly believe in eliminating disease as much as possible through genetics, children with an above average risk of health problems obviously shouldn’t be born. However, as some may slip past such filters or some serious illnesses may reveal themselves only after birth, children under three should only have priority level four, which should be enough to support those who are in good health but also enforce the harsh but correct concept that those who can’t survive their first years without specialized help shouldn’t survive at all. Priority level three is for those aged three to ten, who have partially proven that they weren’t born with serious problems but could still be somewhat under observation in that regard.
People aged ten to 50 should have priority level one, as those are the ones really living the meaningful part of their lives and, by making it past ten under my proposed conditions, have likely already proven that they weren’t born with serious problems. Priority level two is for people aged 50 to 65, who are getting somewhat older but otherwise can still have meaningful lives and a significant impact as long as they’re in good health, so everything should be done to take care of them as long as that doesn’t require delays in addressing the needs of those aged ten to 50.
Then comes a significant drop, with those aged 65 to 80 and 80 to 100 receiving priority levels six and seven, respectively, as quite frankly human bodies are supposed to break down by then and simply prolonging old age after the body already fails makes no sense. Those over 100, however, should be on priority level five, because making it to that age despite receiving very little medical attention for decades proves that their bodies and lifestyles are special indeed, so they deserve a certain amount of help if they truly desire to live even longer.

The above implies that people should be expected to be in very good health at least up to the age of 50. Excepting those born with problems, any person who develops an illness that’s not caused by a virus before the age of 50 should be seen as a failure of society as a whole, unless of course it can be proven that the person in question brought the illness upon themselves without being forced to do so, whether directly or due to lack of convenient access to what they needed to do or use in order to prevent the condition. In such a case, society must pay for its mistake and make sure the person’s health is fully restored as quickly as possible and without the process causing additional discomfort.
Certain health problems are to be expected once a person turns 50, but anything major appearing before the age of 65 without the person being clearly to blame for it should still be seen as a failure of society. Past 65, however, I really see it as normal for human bodies to break down and really think medicine should focus on making sure people are in good health up to that point and not on prolonging old age despite problems.

If someday humans will evolve to a point where it will be normal to be in good health up to 80, 100 or more, then I’ll update the numbers accordingly, but now that’s certainly not the case. Until then, developing major health problems past the age of 65 probably means that you have lived long enough already. If advances in stem cell research or other such methods will end up being capable of fully rejuvenating people, they could and should be used in cases where there really is a point in living further, but that is determined mainly by the person’s brain, which I doubt we’ll be able to replace anytime soon like we can currently replace most other organs.
If a person still has a keen mind and makes good use of it, they really desire to live and their health can be fully restored, measures should probably be taken to ensure that their health really will be fully restored and their life prolonged. But if any of those three conditions is no longer true, especially for people over 65, then they really should be offered a dignified way out instead of wasting resources only to prolong suffering…

About a month and a half ago, I ordered some books. A bookstore from here that also has books in English was offering a 15% discount on all on-line orders, which made the prices more acceptable, so I took a look and picked a few things. Couldn’t find what was at the top of my list, but did find books two to four from the Age of Unreason series, so I added those because I read the first one some years ago and was still interested in the rest. Then, after browsing several times through everything that was in the acceptable price range in any of the categories that could possibly interest me, also added The Children of Húrin, more as an afterthought. Then I waited…
It did say that none of the books were in stock at the moment and that delivery would take 15 to 60 days, while the confirmation e-mail also mentioned the possibility of extending the waiting period to ten weeks or more, or even canceling the delivery if their suppliers no longer have the ordered items in stock either, in which case I’ll be notified. It also said I should e-mail them if I need the items delivered in less than 60 days, so they’ll try to estimate a more exact date and see if they can meet my demands. But since I was in no hurry, I just waited, expecting them to contact me in some way and let me know when the delivery is going to be made.

Well, they didn’t. I had just woken up today and at that exact moment was completely naked, in between getting out of pajamas and changing into my day clothes, when I heard impatient knocking on my door. I call out “wait” and grab my shorts and underwear. The underwear falls on the floor and I leave it there as I quickly get my shorts on, since by that time dad had already opened the door a little. I then grab my t-shirt, ask him what’s up while putting that on as well and he says there’s a delivery guy at the door, saying something about some books.
I figure out what that must be about and rush out, wondering if I didn’t put something on backwards, seeing as I got dressed without as much as a glance. (Somehow, I didn’t.) Of course I was as panicky and shaky as you’d expect me to be when needing to interact with someone I don’t know, obviously acted quite weird with the guy, even made a mistake in writing my name on the form he gave me, but eventually got the books and that’s what matters. Now all that’s left is remembering the details of Newton’s Cannon, since I read it five or six years ago and can’t seem to find a good synopsis…

In other news, just as I was pleased to notice that the plants outside had somehow managed to cover that dreadful fence yet again, I now see that a part of it has been uncovered again, the plants being torn off just as before. I can only assume that the rest will once again be torn off as well over the next few days… Really have to wonder why does this woman like to see a barbed wire fence instead of an apparently live fence, not to mention all the other benefits those plants bring.

And on a very personal note… I have a very clear sense of impending doom and feel like I’m the target of a large conspiracy that pretty much everyone I ever thought was or could have been close to me is part of. Now I wouldn’t usually call myself paranoid, but this feeling has been getting more and more pronounced over the past couple of months, now being quite off the charts already.
But I do seem to have reasons to feel that way… Firstly, and likely most importantly, Jen apparently deciding to no longer talk to me just after saying she’ll be visiting London this summer. (I think she just left today, in fact.) And since that’s where Andra is, I’m putting two and two together. Of course, based on what I know, she stopped talking to her when she left, after marrying Dave, and hasn’t restored contact since, but it’s not like she’d tell me if they did talk again, or if she simply found out something new about Andra, so I can’t rely on that… Either way, I can add the more frequent fights and apparently more noticeable disagreements with Andreea, Nadia apparently deciding to stop talking to me as well after I told her something I really don’t think could have bothered her, considering what I know of her, Susana showing up a month after I last saw her on-line and saying she’s certain I hate her… And all of this comes after the earlier issues with Elena G., who added me as a friend on Facebook when I bumped into her on there, didn’t reply to my messages and then put me on ignore with no explanation. And, more recently, there’s also Liz announcing that her new boyfriend wants children and she’s considering adoption. Though that’s different because I stopped talking to her because of it instead of the other way around.
So that basically leaves me howling at the moon… Catching Ami on messenger a few times last month was a very pleasant surprise, and her assuring me, after I mentioned these other things to her, that we’re definitely still on speaking terms seemed like really good news, but that was three weeks ago and since then she hasn’t appeared on messenger again and didn’t even reply to most of the messages I sent her on Facebook. Which apparently leaves Sandra as the only person willing to put up with talking to me when I happen to catch her on, and “put up with” may really be the right term, seeing as those conversations never were really personal and therefore can’t produce any noticeable feeling of closeness.
And, of course, I’m more and more worried about what could be going on with Andra with every day that passes…

Finding a gaming system that most computer gamers have likely never heard of before and using it is a risk and a challenge, but also a big opportunity, because you can address the issues some gamers have with the most popular systems, most notably Dungeons and Dragons, while sticking to a tried and true recipe and therefore reducing the risk of running into the inherent problems of developing an entirely new system yourself. When you attempt something like this, you need to explain the system very well and implement it in an appealing game, one likely to create fond memories that will draw players to future games using the same system, because otherwise you run the risk of making a good number of them stay away from any such future games without even giving them a chance. And the gaming system itself needs to be a good one as well, of course.

Fortunately, the gaming system itself truly shines. It was my very first contact with it and I have to say I was quite impressed. It’s quite complex and also, if I may use the term, pretty elegant due to how skills and attributes are connected. Not to mention that you can use your accumulated experience to gradually improve almost constantly, without needing to do it in leaps and bounds only when you level up. It is also somewhere in between more typical computer gaming systems and Dungeons and Dragons when it comes to the importance of random chance. I still prefer the systems that make predicting the exact effects of an action according to the character’s attributes and skills pretty straightforward, but this still seems somewhat better than the highly randomized nature of Dungeons and Dragons.
Unfortunately, however, the developers didn’t seem to keep in mind the fact that for many people this was likely to be the first contact with this particular gaming system. Perhaps they tried to make it appear more accessible by getting rid of more in-depth information, but I really don’t think that’s the right approach. Reading the manual before starting to play is a must, but even so I was still left wondering whose rear end was the game pulling some of those numbers out of. The console isn’t particularly helpful in that regard either, as it seems to have been designed with the same idea in mind and is therefore unlikely to provide the player with all the required details. Plus that in-game information regarding the maximum level for each talent according to the character’s current attributes should have been provided so players won’t need to check the manual if they forget how that’s calculated whenever they want to plan ahead, and being told what the maximum value each character can have for each attribute would have helped as well.

The game’s story is somewhat different from what you usually see, because you’re not one chosen from birth, or aware of some great destiny, nor are you the random stranger who happens to decide to save the world. You start on a personal quest, which will actually only be completed in the second half of the game, and happen to get involved in something along the way that will later prove to be far greater. The main quest develops in several stages, giving you a reason to be where you are at pretty much every moment of the game, that reason really becoming “to save the world” only towards the end. I’m not saying the plot design should win any prizes, because it has few notable moments and plenty of rather weak or somewhat unclear ones, not to mention a really disappointing ending, but it should be noted that they tried.
Your companions’ little quips are one thing I have no complaints about, however. They’re often quite appropriate, give you a sense of their personalities and can sometimes even point out some things you could otherwise have missed. At times I was really sorry I couldn’t take them all along wherever I went just so I could hear what each of them had to say. The voice acting is also quite good for them and any NPCs that have a lot to say, though it becomes poor for the others, who generally only have their first line voiced anyway. The bad thing about your companions, however, is that there’s no point in actually talking to them more than once, or twice for those you get early on, because they won’t have anything new to say. And Jost stands out in a bad way because his story seems to imply a personal quest but there will be no such thing during the game.

Moving on to the combat system, I have to say that, while it’s generally functional, it can be really frustrating at times. The most notable problems are the fact that everyone moves around to reposition themselves pretty much whenever anyone either joins the fight or dies, potentially destroying your tactics, and that, while this doesn’t happen too often, there are times when characters just sit there, refusing to attack because they can’t find a good path to the enemy or even refusing to cast spells for no apparent reason. Some sort of adjustable AI could have helped as well, so you could, for example, set your party members to automatically use strong special attacks whenever they can against tough enemies unless you tell them otherwise or to focus on a single enemy, such as the strongest, the weakest or the one attacking a certain character, instead of needing you to make them focus once again after every kill because they tend to spread out, with each picking a different fight. The lack of that AI isn’t that much of a problem for someone who likes micromanagement as much as I do, but I’m just saying it would have helped quite a lot.
Another relatively minor reason for annoyance would be the graphics. Sure, they look really nice from a distance, but they can break down somewhat if you look closely. That would certainly be no problem in itself from my point of view, but it becomes one when it seems that the system requirements are too high for what it offers. Those high requirements may well be directly connected to the insane amount of bloom, which made me rub my eyes on more than one occasion, thinking my vision was getting cloudy… Also, while I’m talking about the system requirements, I should also mention the pretty long loading times…
And, while in a way it makes sense, I could also list the available equipment under minor annoyances. There are things you’ll be able to purchase or otherwise obtain as soon as you gain access to the Ducal Citadel that you’ll likely be using until the end of the game. In fact, you’ll only be able to purchase better equipment in two places: Tallon and Murolosh, and even then the differences will be minor. Not to mention that the best armor you can find in Murolosh can only be worn by dwarves, pretty much forcing you to take Forgrimm with you until the end of the game, because he’s the only one who can use the best pieces of equipment. Weapons aren’t that different either, with arguably the best rapier and staff of the game being obtained in Moorbridge, which is the very first area you’re sent to as part of the Dragon Quest, and a two-handed axe that’s better than anything you’ll be able to get your hands on until Murolosh being obtained in the Blood Mountains, which is the second Dragon Quest area. And the fact that the Armor of Fire gets turned into a single suit once you gather all the pieces isn’t exactly pleasant either, because it no longer allows you to mix and match parts of it with other pieces of equipment that could perhaps be more useful for your chosen character class.

But this game’s major problems are exactly two, with the one that will plague you from the very first moment to the last being your characters’ slow running speed. Coupled with the lack of any mounts or means of teleporting, that turns going from one end of a map to another, which you’ll need to do quite often, into a very tedious and time-consuming task. While a slow jog would seem like a realistic running speed for someone in heavy armor, implementing it in a game is nothing but annoying and a serious design flaw. Not to mention that you’re not too likely to have more than two characters in heavy armor at any one moment, and possibly just one.
The other problem is that most areas only get unlocked when a quest sends you there and then get locked again once you complete that quest. That’s right: Once you complete the main quest in an area and exit that area, you can never go back! If there were any other quests there that you hadn’t finished yet or if you wanted to purchase or otherwise obtain something but didn’t before leaving, tough luck. The only exceptions to this rule are Ferdok, Tallon and Murolosh. Though you’ll bump into several NPCs in more than one location, meaning that they advance through the story as well and therefore certain areas could end up looking quite deserted if they’d still be accessible, there really is no excuse for something like this and I therefore consider this to be the game’s biggest flaw.

If you glance over my review, you’ll see that I listed a few good things and many more bad ones. Does that mean this is a bad game? Well, it depends on what you’re looking for. Personally, seeing as I’m very interested in what goes on “under the hood” and usually have a couple of gaming system concepts running through my mind at any one time, the complex yet elegant character development system got me quite hooked, while my penchant for micromanagement meant that I wasn’t really bothered by the combat issues I mentioned above, mainly just making note of them in order to properly write this review. Otherwise, I learned to more or less ignore the loading times, made sure I finished everything before an area would get locked and generally found ways to put up with every annoyance, with the possible exception of the slow running speed, without significant problems.
In the end I can say that, while I found certain things frustrating, a couple of them very much so, I still thought it was a reasonably good game overall. It’s just so disappointing to recognize its true potential and imagine how great it could have been if the developers wouldn’t have insisted on “compensating” for every good feature by intentionally implementing at least one really bad one!

As the Kepler team is bent on secrecy, at one point even attempting to obtain approval not to release any information until the primary mission finishes, which is scheduled for the end of 2012, we can only be thankful for such slips that can shed just a little bit more light on their finds. Sure, they released something, but that’s just raw data about 306 of the 706 planet candidates they had at the time, which may be interesting for very dedicated amateur astronomers but otherwise doesn’t count for much unless others would be able to follow up on that set of data, which would require plenty of time on good enough telescopes, and that is in very short supply.
So I’m quite pleased that such a piece of information came out, no matter how it did, though the people involved most certainly are not. We’re basically just talking about a single slide, which is questionable in itself, but it is nevertheless an update. I would like it very much if they’d take this as a cue to be more open and release information as soon as it becomes available, therefore also being able to properly explain what that information means and how it should be taken, but fear they’ll unfortunately go the opposite way, becoming even more guarded and erecting more safeguards in order to prevent even such slips from happening again…

I looked for and watched that speech after a notice stating that the team was working hard on responding to the reactions caused by it, but before reading what the fuss was actually about. What I can say is that, while the guy is certainly not the best person to give speeches, the confusion wasn’t really his fault. In fact, I wasn’t sure what they were supposed to be busy responding to at the time I finished watching his speech, so I then had to look for other articles in order to figure out what the misunderstanding was. Sure, he said “Earth-like” a number of times, but he was obviously referring to data regarding the size of planets, so the thought of taking that term as meaning “habitable” didn’t cross my mind for even a single moment. In fact, the terms used for comparison were listed under the sizes on that chart, with “like Earth” being clearly defined as “having a radius less than twice that of Earth”.
Yet he still came under fire and likely had to pay more of a price than we’re led to believe for what is in fact a misunderstanding generated and propagated by others. I’m sure the main culprits are some tabloids that thought it’d make a nice headline to say there are so many planets just like Earth, likely pretending to misunderstand on purpose, just to make it sound more interesting, which is what such publications usually do. But he had to publish a statement meant to clarify the matter and probably had to face various sanctions as well, not to mention the mistrust of his colleagues from now on, who will likely keep blaming him for… Well, for the fact that they didn’t make that data public sooner and in a more “official” and organized manner, which would have allowed them to explain it better as well.

Yet, as I said before, that slide is pretty questionable in itself, because it lists a total of 1160 planet candidates at the top, but if you estimate the number of planets in each category according to the bar sizes and the numbers listed on the left you only get to a total of about 270, even lower than the 306 covered in a paper analyzing the candidates about which data has been released last month. That seems to suggest either that the numbers are wrong or that the slide is based only on a specific selection of planet candidates, both of these significantly reducing the credibility and relevance of the information offered.
But, if correct, that single slide does provide a fair bit of additional information, starting with that number at the top, which appears to suggest that about 454 new candidates have been taken into consideration in the few weeks between the official release of data and this speech. That number could perhaps be reduced to about 300 if the total includes the roughly 150 candidates that are mentioned in the paper as being known at the time of the release but labeled as likely to be false positives and therefore not included in the count, but it’s a significant increase even so. Yet the most significant piece of information is just the size distribution displayed, which contradicts the paper mentioned above, which indeed stated that most planet candidates had a radius no more than four times that of Earth but listed those with a radius two to four times that of Earth as clearly outnumbering the smaller ones. The paper clearly stated that only candidates with a radius at least 25% larger than Earth’s were included in the data that was made public, even though smaller ones have been detected, so it’s easy to assume that the percentage of small planet candidates detected is significantly greater than what the release suggests, but this is the first time that assumption is confirmed in any way, which is a major development!
(Interestingly, that paper is somewhat questionable as well. The first reason is that apparently they did away with the three transit requirement, listing promising candidates after only two transits, though I can’t quite understand what can be so promising about two similar dips in a star’s brightness coming at apparently random intervals. The second reason is that there are at least 12 planet candidates that shouldn’t be there even if you only count two transits, meaning a single full orbit, because the data covers 43 days of observations and those ten have estimated orbital periods longer than that. Even if we’re to assume that the first transit happened during the first moments of observation, the four with the longest periods couldn’t have even covered half their orbits during that time, as we’re talking about estimates of roughly 87, 119, 207 and a staggering 10389 days, respectively, so not even the infinitesimal dip in brightness that may be noticed when a planet is directly behind a star could have possibly been observed and taken as confirmation in those cases. I really don’t see how a single dip in a star’s brightness can be considered a planet candidate, nor how can one claim to reliably estimate that potential planet’s orbital period based solely on the time it took to pass in front of the star, if that’s indeed what happened.)

Since they announced that they won’t even be releasing information on the 400 candidates held back from the announced 706 until 2011, I don’t exactly hope to see many things happening in the near future, but I will be watching, just in case. With the Earth-based observation season for that patch of sky ending in September according to what I heard, they could at least release an updated list based on those first 43 days of observations towards the end of the year, confirming what they could confirm by then and eliminating those proven to be false positives, but we’ll see. At this rate I really wonder how many decades the team’ll need to go through all the three and a half years of observations that’ll be generated by Kepler during its primary mission if they insist on holding on to the data so much and not allowing others to help…