Let me start with the well-known 1% theory, and use a very conservative estimate for it too. Currently, it is estimated that the Milky Way contains up to 500 billion stars, but I’ll use 100 billion to illustrate a worst case scenario.
Let’s say we have 100 billion stars in our galaxy. If 1% of them would have planets around them, that makes for one billion solar systems. Current estimates are that as many as one in three, 33%, have solar systems, but let’s drop that and keep going with 1%. If 1% of those solar systems contain at least one planet that can support some form of life, it means we have at least ten million planets that can support some form of life. And keep in mind that life may mean many things, some of which we couldn’t even perceive. If 1% of those life-supporting planets actually do have life on them, it means we have at least 100000 planets with life on them. If 1% of those planets contain at least one species that has developed what we call intelligence, it means we have at least 1000 intelligent species.
It is simply next to impossible for us to be the only ones, and this takes into account our galaxy alone, and there are many more out there.
But simply being there doesn’t mean they can visit. Earth is simply a grain of sand within the desert that is the Milky Way, which is in itself just another grain of sand within the desert that is the universe. Finding another grain of sand with certain characteristics requires some very advanced technology, so we need to go one step further. If 1% of those 1000 species developed the necessary technology, it means there are ten species in our galaxy alone that could pay a visit.
This is the worst case scenario, ignoring any possible intergalactic travellers, and the number I will work with: ten. Not that much, is it? But it is greater than zero, and that’s all that’s needed to make it unlikely for us not to at least have received such visitors at some point in the past, if not for them to still be around at the present time. That said, let’s think a little about what would happen in such a scenario.
Some think they’ll be hostile. Why would they be? It’s not that we’d stand a chance against a civilization that could reach us, coming from who knows how many light years away, but just a question of what would they have to gain?
Resources? I’m sure there are many planets that have way more resources than Earth does, considering how much we’re draining it. Plus that trying to mine a planet already occupied by a civilization that would immediately become hostile would be a nuisance they could do without. Our attacks would be nothing more than mosquito bites, but mosquitoes can be pretty annoying. Plus that battles might destroy the very resources they’d be looking for.
Slaves? Members of a species that desire freedom make pretty poor choices in that case, don’t you think? I mean, if they can get to us, it is only logical that they can get to worlds inhabited by creatures that could serve their needs well enough without needing constant supervision or expensive brainwashing methods.
Sport? Come on, how interesting could it be to hunt us down? We wouldn’t stand a chance, it’d be like killing ants. Over 6.5 billion ants… Going through a few might be interesting, but don’t you think they’d get bored really fast? And if they just want a few they wouldn’t need to make themselves known to all of us. Just pick up some, do whatever it is they want to do with them, then move on.
Nope, I’d say that, since in our current situation we’re certainly not a threat, any potentially hostile civilization would simply pass us by.
Others think they’ll share their technology with us. Once again I need to ask, what would they have to gain by such an act? Or, even if they’d be inclined to do it out of the kindness of their hearts, how could they, considering what we’re doing with the technology that we currently have?
Just think about it for a moment. We certainly are a hostile civilization, one focused on conquering. We are also quite inventive, expecially when it comes to finding ways for using anything to harm another. With that in mind, would you give us any advanced technology?
Or let me put it another way, in simpler terms. Say you see somebody struggling to cut down a tree with a stone axe. The stone axe is bloody. Next to that person, there is another. Dead. Quite obviously killed with the very stone axe that is now used to cut down the tree. Would you give a chainsaw to the person trying to cut down the tree?
If they’d be concerned about us, they wouldn’t give us anything for fear we’d use it to wipe ourselves out. If they’d be concerned about themselves, they wouldn’t give us anything for fear we’d use it against them. If they’d be concerned about worlds in general, they wouldn’t give us anything because… Well, we seem to be doing a good enough job at destroying one with what we already have, don’t you think?
Nope, I’m quite sure that any peaceful civilization would pass us by as well, just like a potentially hostile one would.
That leaves the explorers and those interested in exchanging information. But, once again, what could they gain by interacting with us?
If their purpose would be to chart Earth, I’m sure they could do it well enough from orbit. Actually, they would probably learn far more about this planet by scanning it from orbit than we know after being on it all this time.
As for the various species living on it, why would they need to ask us? What do we know? Sure, we’re making definite progress with genetics, but we’re still far from the end of that road. They could probably learn more about a species by analyzing a hair from it’s body, to say nothing about a drop of blood, than they would by asking us. And they could observe life cycles from a safe distance just as well. Considering what we can do with spy satellites, it only makes sense that, if they can get to us, they can track a mouse from the Moon just as well. Or they could just grab a few members of whatever species they’re interested in, including ours, watch them for a while, then either kill them or wipe their memories and send them back.
As for exchange of information, don’t make me laugh. That would be a one-sided conversation, likely resembling one between a leading scientist and a retard, and I assume it’s obvious which one we’d be. So that brings us right back to what I said about about peaceful civilizations.
So this case leads to the same conclusion. Whatever their intentions might be, there is no reason for them to make themselves known to the whole world.
The ten species that I mentioned above make visits over the course of our history quite likely. Not because we’re that interesting specifically, but because what we represent is interesting enough to at least keep under observation. I’m saying that because, while there are probably thousands of civilizations in our galaxy alone, they are most likely a very rare occurence, considering the total number of stars and planets. And a potentially hostile civilization, which we are, would warrant even more attention.
It’s actually possible that some of them landed here in plain sight a long time ago, when they knew we wouldn’t recognize their technology for what it really is and they could pass as gods. It is also possible that there were permanent observation posts in place until rather recently. In that case, they probably were completely automatic, probes that sent data back whenever something interesting was going on, or at specific intervals. After all, there’s no real reason to keep actual observers around when “security cameras” can do the job just as well, right?
But then we got a little smarter and such things became a problem. We started to have the potential of recognizing their technology, which made contact a security threat. I’m not denying that certain individuals might have been contacted even after that moment, but they would need to be extremely careful about such encounters, and any event in which they’d be seen by a large number of people is pretty much out of the question.
For a while that still wasn’t much of a problem. If we’re making definite progress on creating an effective cloaking device, becoming invisible certainly would be a simple routine for them. But then the real problem arose. We stopped simply looking up and started going up. Aircraft weren’t that much of a threat, but when we started putting things into orbit, and going out in space ourselves, I assume they had to pull back. After all, being invisible only prevents detection until somebody bumps into you. And, after a certain point, there were simply too many things we created orbiting Earth. The risk became too great to be worth it.
I’m sure there have been real sightings, they were probably what made them pull back in the first place. Or perhaps what happened in between the moment we gained the ability to detect them and the moment they were able to get back here and get rid of whatever it was they left in orbit in the first place. Or maybe some of them don’t get along too well and had to avoid each other, which made them unable to get everything out of here in time. Or the results of accidents or mistakes after that point, as those can happen to anybody.
But I think they got enough assurances to be at ease waiting for us. They know we’re looking for them and they know we’ll find them and make ourselves known well before we’ll be able to reach them. They know we’re not a potential threat yet just like they know we can’t be of any use either.
Isn’t it logical that, as soon as we started exploring our little neighborhood, they marked us as a potential contact, pulled out all their equipment and are just waiting with mild interest for us to get in touch?
That’s the way I see it at least. We won’t see them touching down, climbing out and waving at us. Or, if we ever will, it means they badly need something that for some reason they can’t take directly, so we should be very careful and play our cards right. But that’s extremely unlikely, as I don’t see what we could help them with.
So keep reaching up for the stars, because they won’t reach down for us. But, if one day we’ll figure out how to send the right signal in the right direction, we just might hear a bored security guard mumbling something in a weird language. Something that’d translate roughly to “Hey, boss, looks like the little critters from F140-D32-M3 finally figured out how to call.”
