Cav's Place

Yesterday was the 500th day of the current stage of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. True, counting the days made far more sense in the beginning, and even more so when almost everyone was expecting Ukraine to lose quickly, but 500 is the “roundest” number between 100 and 1000, and I must hope that 1000 will never be reached, and that the reason will be the opposite of those initial expectations, that Russia and Putin’s regime will lose long before that point, unequivocally and in a manner that will ensure that they will stop being a threat. Unfortunately, while now the risk of Ukraine actually being defeated has all but vanished, the chance of Russia suffering such a defeat are similarly low, if not even lower.
There’s little point in writing this here when so many others who are so much better suited to make such assessments keep saying it, and even less in doing so yet again, after what I posted after this started and, especially, after 50 days, as well as in a few other posts, but I nevertheless will: The West could and should have stopped this from ever happening. All the signs that it was coming had been there, blindingly obvious, for many, many years. The means to stop it, the strength for the necessary show of force and the capacity for any additional operations which might have been required if the show of force wouldn’t have been enough on its own, were most definitely available, and in fact less costly and with fewer risks than what will be required to ensure that Ukraine will obtain a solid victory. All that lacked was the will, be it political or that of the society as a whole… As is the case when it comes to many other major problems, of various kinds and on various levels.
At least some more concrete military aid is finally being offered to Ukraine, albeit still far from sufficient and after unforgivable delays that caused an appalling amount of suffering, destruction and death. And it would appear that some more specific commitments are going to be made… Not that those are worth much of anything on their own. But maybe, just maybe, some important steps actually will be taken in the right direction. Maybe, just maybe, some actually are waking up and not just saying so. Maybe, just maybe, the horrors endured by Ukrainians and the various, albeit far lesser, hardships fallen upon the rest of us as a result of this war will eventually prove to not have been for nothing. It won’t lessen the blame falling on the shoulders of those who could and should have prevented it from ever happening and chose not to, but maybe, just maybe, it’ll end up marking a moment when the world eventually chose a solution that made some amount of sense. Not that I have many hopes of that actually happening…